2nd edition – 30 april 2020
WeYield keeps monitoring all market information helping our car rental experts to understand future impact on corporate and leisure activities. These information are not produced by WeYield but consolidated by the Marketing team.
- EUROCONTROL has produced two scenarios for air traffic recovery in Europe
- Latest INFARE (air prices) insights
- RYANAIR boss says airline won’t fly with ‘idiotic’ social distancing rules
- Coronavirus Global Flight Disruption Monitor
- FORWARDKEYS Domestic China travel and the green shoots of recovery
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EUROCONTROL has produced two scenarios for air traffic recovery in Europe
27 april 2020
EUROCONTROL has produced two scenarios to illustrate the possible impact of the extent to which “COVID-compliant operational procedures” for airlines and airports are common across all European States. If airlines have to comply with one set of regulations on departure and another set when the flight arrives in another state, then this will be particularly onerous on the industry.
These scenarios are not a forecast – they are very much dependent on variables, such as the duration and size of the pandemic across Europe, that are not clear. Rather they illustrate how an uncoordinated approach will significantly impede the rate of recovery. A coordinated approach foresees a broad implementation in mid-June, picking up in July. If this is delayed then the forecast simply moves June to July and rolls on.
Latest Infare (air prices) insights
Infare (22 april 2020)
- Globally, we see a significant drop of bookable flights falling by 83,7% for the week of 23 April 2020 compared to the same period last year.
- Starting from the week of 11 June, bookable fights return to a similar number observed in 2019, with a 2% increase globally from the week of 11 June to 15 October 2020.
- Globally, looking at the next six months, the average price of the lowest fares across Economy, Premium Economy and Business classes, is not following standard patterns.
- Even after the week of 11 June 2020 when the number of bookable flights goes back to normal, prices remain globally lower than the same period in 2019, by 9,4%.
Ryanair boss says airline won’t fly with ‘idiotic’ social distancing rules
Source TheGuardian (22 april 2020)
Ryanair planes won’t return to the skies if the airline is forced to leave the middle seat empty to comply with “idiotic” in-flight social distancing rules, its chief executive, Michael O’Leary, has said.
The Dublin-based carrier’s business model relies on flying as frequently as possible, stripping out costs and running an extremely high “load factor”, the aviation industry term for how full planes are.
“We can’t make money on 66% load factors,” he said.
“Even if you do that, the middle seat doesn’t deliver any social distancing, so it’s kind of an idiotic idea that doesn’t achieve anything anyway,” he added, in an interview with the Financial Times.
Coronavirus Global Flight Disruption Monitor
Realtime Tracking of COVID-19 Flight Cancellations Globally and per Country. Try it out.
Total Flight Cancellation Rate: 83.5%
International Flight Cancellation Rate: 96.8%
Domestic Flight Cancellation Rate: 76.3%
Domestic China travel and the green shoots of recovery
By Olivier Ponti, Vice-President Insights, Forwardkeys, (29 April 2020)
ForwardKeys, the travel analytics company, has revealed that domestic China air travel has been recovering slowly in the wake of the COVID-19 outbreak. However, with yesterday’s news that Beijing has lifted its 14-day quarantine requirement on travel between the capital and low-risk areas in China, ForwardKeys now expects a significant uplift.
Travel to Shenzhen, one of China’s first Special Economic Zones, and to Hainan island, China’s tropical holiday hotspot in the South China Sea is likely to be indicative of the recovery trend as it develops. In both cases, flight arrivals picked up in the third week of February, although the base was much lower for Hainan, as a leisure destination than Shenzhen, which is a commercial centre.
Regarding international travel, ForwardKeys is not able to be optimistic, because China has imposed heavy restrictions on international flights. Chinese airlines are allowed only to maintain one route per country and one flight per week. Foreign airlines are allowed only one route to China and one flight per week. It is estimated that there will be just 130 international flights to China per week and a maximum of 5,000 people per day entering and leaving the country.